We have seen that the Russian offensive in Ukraine is,,,,, less than expected. It appears that the training (quality of troops), Morale, and especially the quality of equipment were much lower than analysts expected. Indeed, the level of resupply was not at the level expected, including munitions, troops and equipment….all fell short of expectations.
So: a question: Will the threatened Russian Nukes even actually work? No one has exploded a Nuke of any kind since 1992 (the US) and 1990 (Soviet Union). Knowing the Russian quality of maintenance and competence, one wonders if any nuclear weapon that they have are in good repair, with the proper pieces (like initiators) in place and up to date. Are the controls well kept and working? Have the weapons warheads been stored properly? (Things like High Explosives are often adversely affected by humidity and temperature). Are all the parts there or did some Russian soldier sell parts for scrap? How about the missiles that carry the warheads?
I’m no expert, and I don’t know much about tactical Nukes, especially Russian ones, nor their handling and storage …or maintenance requirements….but I have worked with Russians, and they can break an anvil and then sell the pieces on the black market all the while reporting that it works fine and has passed the inspections monthly….
One wonders. It isn’t like we don’t have to address the threat, but is it really a threat?
About the only thing we have to go on is the fact that the Ruskies have been using the same rockets to get their… and our… astronauts into space and back since Jesus was in boot camp. NASA, on the other hand, can’t get a bottle rocket airborne anymore…
…Not… a warm and fuzzy feeling…
The most recent Kiev strike supports your hypothesis. If Russia uses a nuke on Ukraine and it does not detonate at all, just thuds into the mud, then the Ukraine will have the radioactive material to build into a bomb that works. More likely outcome some kind of fizzle, incomplete initial or final detonation. Radioactive material not recoverable. Solution is throw a bunch until one works.
Russia has over 6000 warheads. If only 10% actually go kaboom that’s more than enough to end moden society. Just ONE changes the entire paradigm of our society.
There was a Tom Clancy novel with Jack Ryan (the good Jack Ryan series, not the other one) in which there was a treay with the Russians to dismantle ICBms. Turned out 90% of their nukes were garbage.
Now, I don’t know what upkeep needs to be done on the warheads, but I do know there is a lot to maintain on the rockets……….
I can’t believe that for the last 40 years that the Russians have put much into their nukes considering how pitifull their standing army has proven to be.
Warhead radiation causes all the electronics to degrade over time.
They have to be replaced regularly, or you get a >click<, when you wanted a Bang.
How well their stockpiles are maintained is an open question, but one nobody wants to find out experientially. Most particularly including Vlad himself.
Nuclear version of DADT.
And doing 90/10 math games with 6000 warheads doesn't work when you're talking about a single launch, or a few strikes with tactical nukes. They could go 0-fer quite easily, and then all they've done is provide Zelensky with nuclear material, potentially even a functional nuclear weapon or two (Ukrainian scientists are exactly as good with things as Russian ones) and the world with casus belli to seek regime change against Putin, perhaps kinetically, for Crimes Against Humanity.
Yet again, the fate of the world hinges on the sanity (or lack thereof) of the Russian generals between Putin and the launch button.
Interesting times.