Weather forecasting at it’s finest

So, on Thursday, the forecast for Saturday was 64 degrees(f) and rain. 100 percent chance of rain Friday night, 90 percent chance of rain from 6 AM to 10 AM, and then partial clearing after noon.

So, on Thursday evening, we cancelled the work party we had planned for the range,…spring cleanup and moving about 15 yards of dirt.  The ground was already wet and even a small amount of rain would have made the job miserable and slippery and even dangerous….

Friday evening, the forecast was an 80% chance of rain in the evening and the early hours of Saturday  and possible clearing in the morning. Still a high of 64(f).

Saturday dawned bright and clear. No rain Friday evening nor on Saturday morning. In fact, there was no rain at all from Thursday until Early morning Sunday.
So much for forecast accuracy. Oh, and the high was 77 (f).

If the weather forecasters can’t be accurate for weather 24-48 hours in advance, then how can their climate models be accurate in 50-100 years? In 100-200 years?

Yes, I know weather is not climate, but if one cannot model for short term with any accuracy, how can one model for the long term?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *