Like a Covid death prediction

 The forecast for the winds was less than on-target..

Highest wind was 38 knots…more or less 44 miles per hour.

Most wind gusts were much less.

Power only flickered once, and that was for less than 30 seconds as the automatics isolated the short. 

All prepped up (not really) and nowhere to go….

ETA: If they can’t predict the weather 12 hours in advance, what makes them think they can predict Climate 50 years into the future? 

4 thoughts on “Like a Covid death prediction

  1. Regarding your question, weather and climate are two different things.

    I suggest this analogy. While it may be difficult to predict the outcome of any individual black jack hand (weather), casinos have made a lot of money knowing the general trends of the game of black jack (climate).

    Pete

  2. Poor analogy.

    Climate is weather writ large. IF your model is so poor that one cannot make an accurate prediction 122 hours in advance, then it is not accurate enough to predict anything 20 or more years in the future.

    Your reply shows that you don't have a good grasp of computer modeling.

  3. You say my analogy is poor, but then you basically use it yourself ("Climate is weather writ large." Casinos make money on gambling trends–black jack writ large).

    You are right, I don't have a good grasp of computer modeling, but I do know that computer models depend heavily on the data entered. While weather forecasters and climatologists have some overlap in data used, the difference in timeframe and scope means there is much data unique to each and overlapping data is weighted differently.

    And finally, how inaccurate was the forecast you complain about. Predicted wind gusts up to 50 mph; actual wind gusts up to 44 mph. Most people would say they predicted a windy day, and it turned out to be pretty fricking windy.

    Pete

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