We were gonna fly to the seminar, but the forecast on Aviationweather.gov called for clear skies at our departure time (which they were), but ceilings getting very low, down to 1100 feet at our return time and winds 220 7 gusting 22, with a high probability of showers.
So we drove. Met at the airport and carpooled.
One of the topics was on aviation weather and the much improved forecasting for weather …..increased reliability for said forecasts. Hah.
As we departed our home airport, after getting back to our cars, the ASOS said “skies clear and winds calm”. Not even close to the forecast.
Sadly,we drove an extra hour each way when the weather was excellent for flying. Pretty much perfect, in fact.
It’s still perfect an hour later. Broken at 6000…170 at 8. No, 3 pilots didn’t misread the forecast. We are getting the weather they promised…..8 hours late.
So much for forecasts.
And we are supposed to believe that these folks can predict the climate 50 and 100 years into the future when they can’t predict weather 8 hours into the future?